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How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

Contributed by Zeqing Huang and Tongtiegang Zhao This blog aims to contribute to the large scientific discussion on the performance assessment of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts. We are particularly driven by the valuable global precipitation and temperature forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs) (Pappenberger and Buizza, 2009; Kirtman et al., 2014; Bauer et al., 2015; Becker et al., 2020; Crochemore et al., 2021). Their forecasts have been widely used in hydrological modeling and water resources management, including flood warning  (Alfieri…

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HEPEX @ MODSIM 2021

HEPEX @ MODSIM 2021

MODSIM is coming around again this year from 5-9 December and very excitingly you can now attend remotely or in person (!!!). So there are options for everyone! For those who aren’t aware, MODSIM is the biannual conference of the Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, and attracts >700 delegates from all corners of the globe and all walks of modelling. The HEPEX sessions at MODSIM have a brief but eventful history: they began in 2015 and…

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Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

Contributed by Le Liu, PhD., School of Computer Science Northwestern Polytechnical University.   As we know, ensemble approaches are widely adopted to estimate forecasts uncertainty. In atmospheric sciences, these approaches are specifically categorized into two types: multi-model ensembles and perturbed parameter ensembles. The former runs multiple numerical prediction models with the same initial parameters to estimate the atmospheric evolution, while the latter runs a single model multiple times with slightly perturbed initial conditions. They are usually combined to form the final forecast….

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Summary of H SAF-HEPEX workshop

Summary of H SAF-HEPEX workshop

by Fredrik Wetterhall, David Fairbairn and Patricia de Rosnay, ECMWF. More than a hundred modellers and satellite data specialists in the field of hydrology came together at ECMWF from 25 to 28 November to debate new ideas and deepen collaborations. The workshop on “satellite-inspired hydrology in an uncertain future” was organized jointly by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for hydrology and water management (H SAF) and the HEPEX community. The last joint H SAF/HEPEX workshop was held in 2014, so…

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EGU Twitter page

EGU Twitter page

This week, the HEPEX traveling circus will descend on Vienna, home of the annual convention of the European Geosciences Union. HEPEX-ers will be tweeting their way through the conference – and these Tweets will be assembled in below Twitter stream. Feel free to add your thoughts, ideas and observations – just make sure they’re summarized in 160 characters max – and don’t forget to include the #hepex tag! #hepex at #EGU17