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Category: seasonal prediction

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Contributed by Louise Arnal, University of Reading & ECMWF Editor’s Note: Don’t miss the brilliant cartoon summary at the bottom of this post! Over recent decades, seasonal streamflow forecasting methods have evolved and diversified, reflecting changes in our scientific understanding of streamflow predictability on seasonal timescales and our increasing computer power. The first operational model-based ensemble seasonal streamflow forecast, called the ESP1,2 (ensemble streamflow prediction), relies on the correct knowledge of the initial hydrological conditions (IHC; i.e. of snowpack, soil…

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Hydropower management in Brazil and water forecasts – Interview with Alberto Assis dos Reis

Hydropower management in Brazil and water forecasts – Interview with Alberto Assis dos Reis

Alberto is an engineer and hydrologist at Cemig, a Brazilian power company headquartered in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the state of Minas Gerais, and is currently starting a PhD work at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). His PhD project involves also collaboration with three other organizations in Europe, strongly involved in Hepex: Irstea (France), Deltares (The Netherlands) and ECMWF (UK). He was recently visiting these organizations and, when he came to France, I took the opportunity to…

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How suitable is quantile mapping for post-processing GCM precipitation forecasts?

How suitable is quantile mapping for post-processing GCM precipitation forecasts?

Contributed by QJ Wang, University of Melbourne* Back in September 2015 at the highly successful HEPEX Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting Workshop at SMHI in Norrkoping, Sweden, I heard a number of presentations and saw posters on the use of quantile mapping for post-processing or downscaling GCM precipitation forecasts. While quantile mapping was well known to be highly effective in bias correction, I was concerned that some of its limitations might not have been apparent to some people. After discussing with Andy…

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Meeting user needs for sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts in Australia

Meeting user needs for sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts in Australia

By Tongtiegang Zhao, Andrew Schepen and Q.J. Wang, members of the CSIRO Columnist Team Good streamflow forecasts allow water management agencies to make better decisions and achieve more efficient water use. Currently, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology provides seasonal forecasts of three-month-total streamflow for over 200 gauging stations around Australia. Forecast users, particularly water management agencies, also require sub-seasonal streamflow forecasts, so that they can better plan short-term water use. Our recent study responds to this user need by testing ensemble sub-seasonal to seasonal…

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A never-ending struggle – Improving spring melt runoff forecast via snow information

A never-ending struggle – Improving spring melt runoff forecast via snow information

Contributed by David Gustafsson (SMHI), member of the SMHI Guest Columnist Team As long as we can remember, the Swedish hydropower hydrologists have tried to improve the spring melt runoff predictions by integrating snow measurements in their forecast models. Various measurements techniques have been used: traditional snow surveys with snow tube sampling; snowmobile and helicopter borne ground-penetrating radar and gamma-ray sensors; laser-scanning; and of course numerous attempts with satellite data (Photo 1). The usual conclusions have been, “yes we can…

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