Contributed by James Brown, Nathalie Voisin and Maria-Helena Ramos
The experiment was launched in June 2012 and the first results are currently being anlaysed.
See our poster presented at EGU 2013:
Posters HS4.3/AS4.20/NH1.13 – Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for improved risk management: across scales and applications
Our aims is:
- To establish the advantages and disadvantages of different post-processing techniques and strategies when accounting for hydrologic uncertainty
- To foster ongoing collaboration among the HEPEX participants on the topic of streamflow post-processing and verification
- To use the intercomparison work as a platform to develop more broadly applicable frameworks for evaluating hydrologic ensemble predictions, including frameworks that are system-oriented (i.e. consider a full range of flow conditions) and application-oriented (e.g. for floods versus water supply)
This initiative began with the HEPEX post-processing and verification workshop in Delft, NL, from 7-9 June 2011, for which a science plan was drafted. Two teams were organized during the workshop (a post-processing techniques team and a verification techniques team) and several proposals were made for follow-up work. This experiment identifies a limited number of scenarios for inter-comparing streamflow post-processors and launches an open call for participation among those who attended the recent HEPEX workshop to run those scenarios. A second phase of the intercomparison will focus on post-processing hydrologic ensemble forecasts that comprise a combination of hydrologic and forcing uncertainties.
Data are provided for 12 unregulated river basins in the eastern part of the United States. Streamflow observations and hydrologic model simulations come from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Daily discharge simulations were generated by 7 different hydrologic models. Simulations were performed with calibrated model parameters. The simulation period covers 36 years, from 1962 until 1997. The experiment comprises several scenarios for participants to consider, including scenarios with fixed options for straightforward intercomparison and free choice to accommodate participants’ experience and ingenuity.