Contributed by Florian Pappenberger, Liz Stephens, Jutta Thielen, Schalk-Jan van Andel and Maria-Helena Ramos
Current challenges, research and development needs
- Decision makers tend to use predominantly those systems and visual representations they are most familiar with. How can they be more engaged in the definition and development of novel, probabilistic products that respect their needs for warning time, accuracy and reliability? Separating confusion or desire for deterministic forecasts from opinions on how a probabilistic forecast should be represented (e.g. “I just want to know whether it is going to flood or not so I don’t want to know the distribution”)
- Guidance tools for decision makers are needed to help them identify the strength and weaknesses of the forecasting systems for different spatial and temporal scales and events. Although floods, droughts and water resource management have different spatial and temporal characteristic scales with varying impacts on local, regional or national scale, their management is often based on the same models and systems.
- Fostering operational use of ensemble predictions through the establishment and maintenance of active networks and forums is another challenge. The ultimate aim is to provide a platform for exchanging operational experiences on running and interpreting EPS operationally by forecasters and water managers.
- There is also a need for wider training on the use of probabilities and forecasts. How should HEPEX help in developing a blue print and example training programme to support researchers and forecasters that are implementing EPS? Focus should be put on providing room for inter-active development sessions involving modellers, forecasters and users, as well as training sessions to the end users.
What else do you think should be considered?
Part 1: What is communication and decision making (https://hepex.inrae.fr/hepex-sip-topic-communication-and-decision-making-14)
Part 2: Communication and decision making within HEPEX and related activities (https://hepex.inrae.fr/hepex-sip-topic-communication-and-decision-making-24)
Part 3: Literature review on communication and decision making (https://hepex.inrae.fr/hepex-sip-topic-communication-and-decision-making-34)