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Category: verification

ZOOMing into the Age of Digital Collaborations

ZOOMing into the Age of Digital Collaborations

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Contributed by Bart van Osnabrugge, Antara Dasgupta, Louise Arnal, Rebecca Emerton and Shaun Harrigan Are physical meetings strictly necessary to foster effective collaborations?  The Context Hearing the laments about online conferences, limited interactions and zoom fatigue, it seems easy to go with the answer “yes they are”. Yes, meeting in person is fun and makes connecting a lot easier. There is no rivalling going out for dinner or partying after a full day of presentations. However, the virtual world also offers…

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HEPEX @ AMOS2022

HEPEX @ AMOS2022

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Contributed by James Bennett, Nick Loveday and Rob Taggart Guns n’ Roses were in town, and so was HEPEX. For many of us AMOS2022 was the first in-person conference we’d attended since the advent of the pandemic. This alone made it an amazing event – it was wonderful to see old and new faces and feed off the energy of others’ work. Like Slash returning to complete the original lineup, it felt like sinking into your favourite chair. AMOS is…

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Shifting the focus of uncertainty analysis from parameters to functions

Shifting the focus of uncertainty analysis from parameters to functions

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Contributed by Shervan Gharari and Hoshin V. Gupta To construct a working process-based model of an environmental system, modelers make a great many decisions. The model is fundamentally, therefore, an assemblage of hypotheses regarding how the natural system works. Those hypotheses can be categorized into 4 hierarchical levels: Level 1– System Diagram and Conservation Law Hypotheses: in which the boundaries of the system are defined, the ingoing and outgoing fluxes are specified, the fundamental system-level state/latent variables are identified (thereby…

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If you had to build a probabilistic streamflow forecasting chain from scratch, what components would you pick up?

If you had to build a probabilistic streamflow forecasting chain from scratch, what components would you pick up?

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Contributed by Joseph Bellier Take a meteorological ensemble, use it as input of a hydrological model, but then what? There are many ways to improve a forecasting chain, but which upgrade is going to be the most beneficial? We recently published a paper in which we “play” with a modular forecasting chain, by adding/removing various components and verifying how skillful the streamflow forecasts are. Here are some outputs. The ensemble approach, in its wider definition (not only meteorological ensemble forecasting),…

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How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

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Contributed by Zeqing Huang and Tongtiegang Zhao This blog aims to contribute to the large scientific discussion on the performance assessment of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts. We are particularly driven by the valuable global precipitation and temperature forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs) (Pappenberger and Buizza, 2009; Kirtman et al., 2014; Bauer et al., 2015; Becker et al., 2020; Crochemore et al., 2021). Their forecasts have been widely used in hydrological modeling and water resources management, including flood warning  (Alfieri…

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