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Category: hydrologic models

Shifting the focus of uncertainty analysis from parameters to functions

Shifting the focus of uncertainty analysis from parameters to functions

Contributed by Shervan Gharari and Hoshin V. Gupta To construct a working process-based model of an environmental system, modelers make a great many decisions. The model is fundamentally, therefore, an assemblage of hypotheses regarding how the natural system works. Those hypotheses can be categorized into 4 hierarchical levels: Level 1– System Diagram and Conservation Law Hypotheses: in which the boundaries of the system are defined, the ingoing and outgoing fluxes are specified, the fundamental system-level state/latent variables are identified (thereby…

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New water modelling to improve irrigation outlook accuracy

New water modelling to improve irrigation outlook accuracy

Contributed by Yating Tang1, Catherine Norwood2, Q J Wang1, Guy Ortlipp3, Mark Bailey3, and Kirsti Hakala1. Goulburn-Murray Water (GMW), Australia’s largest rural water corporation, has teamed up with researchers from the University of Melbourne to improve water forecasting in northern Victoria, to help irrigators with their business planning, cropping and water trading decisions. GMW is responsible for providing water availability information to local irrigators and other water users during the irrigation season each year. GMW provides two types of information…

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How many zeros is too many for reliable streamflow predictions?

How many zeros is too many for reliable streamflow predictions?

Contributed by Mark Thyer, David McInerney and Dmitri Kavetski, University of Adelaide. Ephemeral catchments, where there are days with zero flow, are common in many parts of the world, particular in areas with highly variable climate such as Australia (see Figure 1). Recent research has established how the number of days with zero flow impacts the reliability of probabilistic streamflow predictions in ephemeral catchments (McInerney et al., 2019). When there exists days with zero flow, producing reliable probabilistic predictions is…

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Assimilation of in-situ and satellite data in hydrological predictions – Can we add value?

Assimilation of in-situ and satellite data in hydrological predictions – Can we add value?

Contributed by Jude Musuuza (SMHI). The increased focus on satellite missions in recent years has resulted in a rich source of valuable Earth Observations (EO), in terms of spatial coverage and temporal frequencies that are impossible to achieve with direct measurements. Such observations have been used in various disciplines, including also hydrological modelling, for instance to improve process understanding through tailored model parameterisation and performance assessment. In addition EOs have been used to (better) initialise the model states which further…

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Helping shape a new flood forecasting service in The wellington region, new zealand

Helping shape a new flood forecasting service in The wellington region, new zealand

Contributed by Michael Cranston (RAB), Andy Brown (Greater Wellington Regional Council) and Bapon Fakhruddin (Tonkin and Taylor). The flooding challenge in Wellington Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC) are embarking on a programme to establish improved flood forecasting services across the Wellington Region on New Zealand’s north island. Flooding is considered New Zealand’s number one natural hazard with flood emergencies estimated to have cost $17 million a year in insurance payments and $15 million in emergency management expenditure between 1968 and…

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