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Category: historical

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall and Roberto Buizza, ECMWF The work of producing meteorological ensemble forecasts started 25 years ago at ECMWF and NCEP, and it sparked a revolution in both weather forecasts and its many applications. To celebrate this occasion, more than 100 people from across the world joined the 28 speakers at ECMWF’s Annual Seminar 11-14 September held in Reading, UK. The theme was “Ensemble prediction: past, present and future” and the four days where filled with presentations and…

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Flood memory and historical marks of high waters

Flood memory and historical marks of high waters

Contributed by Maria-Helena Ramos (Irstea, France) Last year, the Hepex Portal published a blog post by Richard Davies from floodlist.com about the UK and Ireland floods in December 2015 and January 2016. When navigating through the floodlist website, I found a page dedicated to flood and high water marks (here). I have always found these marks indicating the level reached by the waters of a river (or any other waterbody) after a flood event to be fascinating. It is not…

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Tracing The Origins of ESP

Tracing The Origins of ESP

HEPEX Historical Hydrology Series, Edition 1 Contribution by Andy Wood, Tom Pagano, and Maury Roos, with special thanks to Mike Anderson Every day in the western US and elsewhere in the world, reservoir release decisions are made based in part on seasonal reservoir inflow forecasts created using a operational technique called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP, which originally stood for Extended Streamflow Prediction). ESP has become a key component of operational long lead prediction in a number of agencies (in the…

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