forecast users

How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

February 17, 2022 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Zeqing Huang and Tongtiegang Zhao This blog aims to contribute to the large scientific discussion on the performance assessment of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts. We are particularly driven by the valuable global precipitation and temperature forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs) (Pappenberger and Buizza, 2009; Kirtman et al., 2014; Bauer et al., 2015; Becker et al., 2020; Crochemore et al., 2021). Their forecasts have been widely used in hydrological modeling and water resources management, including flood warning (Alfieri…

Read More Read More

What is the value of seasonal forecasts for water resources management?

February 19, 2021 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Andres Peñuela, Christopher Hutton and Francesca Pianosi Improved skill of predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and Northern Europe have motivated an increasing effort to improve seasonal weather forecasting systems. Seasonal weather forecasts are expected to be useful for a range of purposes, including to improve the management of water resource systems. To contribute to the assessment of seasonal forecasts value for water managers, we ran a simulation exercise investigating how they could integrate seasonal forecast products in…

Read More Read More

Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

November 18, 2020 Marie-Amélie Boucher Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Le Liu, PhD., School of Computer Science Northwestern Polytechnical University. As we know, ensemble approaches are widely adopted to estimate forecasts uncertainty. In atmospheric sciences, these approaches are specifically categorized into two types: multi-model ensembles and perturbed parameter ensembles. The former runs multiple numerical prediction models with the same initial parameters to estimate the atmospheric evolution, while the latter runs a single model multiple times with slightly perturbed initial conditions. They are usually combined to form the final forecast….

Read More Read More

50 shades of green: lessons about business models for climate services

October 28, 2020 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Francesca Larosa (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Ca’ Foscari University, and UCL Energy Institute | UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources) Climate services are essential for adaptation to climate variability and change The transition towards a zero-carbon economy is profoundly reshaping the business-as-usual. If, on one hand, we must cut down our emissions and restructure the way our economies work, on the other hand we need to use the science we have and the tremendous technological progresses we…

Read More Read More

“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

September 16, 2020 Rebecca Emerton Comments 2 comments

Contributed by Louise Arnal, Jess Neumann, Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke This blog post is based on a paper recently published in Geoscience Communication, written in collaboration with Liz Anspoks, Sue Manson, Tim Norton and Louise Wolfenden from the Environment Agency. With the aim to better anticipate future floods, UK policy is seeing an ongoing shift from flood defence towards a forecast-based flood risk management approach, under the Flood and Water Management Act 2010. It is in this context that…

Read More Read More