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Category: forecast techniques

ZOOMing into the Age of Digital Collaborations

ZOOMing into the Age of Digital Collaborations

Contributed by Bart van Osnabrugge, Antara Dasgupta, Louise Arnal, Rebecca Emerton and Shaun Harrigan Are physical meetings strictly necessary to foster effective collaborations?  The Context Hearing the laments about online conferences, limited interactions and zoom fatigue, it seems easy to go with the answer “yes they are”. Yes, meeting in person is fun and makes connecting a lot easier. There is no rivalling going out for dinner or partying after a full day of presentations. However, the virtual world also offers…

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If you had to build a probabilistic streamflow forecasting chain from scratch, what components would you pick up?

If you had to build a probabilistic streamflow forecasting chain from scratch, what components would you pick up?

Contributed by Joseph Bellier Take a meteorological ensemble, use it as input of a hydrological model, but then what? There are many ways to improve a forecasting chain, but which upgrade is going to be the most beneficial? We recently published a paper in which we “play” with a modular forecasting chain, by adding/removing various components and verifying how skillful the streamflow forecasts are. Here are some outputs. The ensemble approach, in its wider definition (not only meteorological ensemble forecasting),…

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Machine learning for probabilistic hydrological forecasting

Machine learning for probabilistic hydrological forecasting

Contributed by Georgia Papacharalampous and Hristos Tyralis We would firstly like to thank HEPEX for giving us the opportunity to set a background on how machine learning can be used in probabilistic hydrological forecasting.  In this blog post, we start by providing the schematic summary of the discussion given below. Hope you will enjoy the reading! Learning practical problems with data: A machine learning algorithm can be explicitly trained for probabilistic hydrological forecasting Let’s suppose one of our most familiar…

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“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

Contributed by Louise Arnal, Jess Neumann, Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke This blog post is based on a paper recently published in Geoscience Communication, written in collaboration with Liz Anspoks, Sue Manson, Tim Norton and Louise Wolfenden from the Environment Agency. With the aim to better anticipate future floods, UK policy is seeing an ongoing shift from flood defence towards a forecast-based flood risk management approach, under the Flood and Water Management Act 2010. It is in this context that…

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New water modelling to improve irrigation outlook accuracy

New water modelling to improve irrigation outlook accuracy

Contributed by Yating Tang1, Catherine Norwood2, Q J Wang1, Guy Ortlipp3, Mark Bailey3, and Kirsti Hakala1. Goulburn-Murray Water (GMW), Australia’s largest rural water corporation, has teamed up with researchers from the University of Melbourne to improve water forecasting in northern Victoria, to help irrigators with their business planning, cropping and water trading decisions. GMW is responsible for providing water availability information to local irrigators and other water users during the irrigation season each year. GMW provides two types of information…

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