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Category: forecast techniques

Can we achieve seasonally coherent forecasts given limited NWP DATA – across a continental domain?

Can we achieve seasonally coherent forecasts given limited NWP DATA – across a continental domain?

Contributed by Kirsti Hakala1, QJ Wang1, Qichun Yang1 and David Robertson2. Reliable weather forecasts are critical for the planning and management of a variety of social and economic activities, such as water management. To make such forecasts, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed. However, NWP models are limited in their ability to represent certain physical processes and initial conditions, and thus include inaccuracies, which can be improved through calibration. Effective calibration should aim to provide forecasts that are…

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Assimilation of in-situ and satellite data in hydrological predictions – Can we add value?

Assimilation of in-situ and satellite data in hydrological predictions – Can we add value?

Contributed by Jude Musuuza (SMHI). The increased focus on satellite missions in recent years has resulted in a rich source of valuable Earth Observations (EO), in terms of spatial coverage and temporal frequencies that are impossible to achieve with direct measurements. Such observations have been used in various disciplines, including also hydrological modelling, for instance to improve process understanding through tailored model parameterisation and performance assessment. In addition EOs have been used to (better) initialise the model states which further…

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Can seasonal hydroclimate services be a success story for local applications? Some answers based on a French case study!

Can seasonal hydroclimate services be a success story for local applications? Some answers based on a French case study!

Contributed by Louise Crochemore (SMHI), Ilias Pechlivanidis (SMHI) and Maria-Helena Ramos (INRAE). Hydroclimate services are increasingly available… An increasing number of hydroclimate services provide readily available water predictions to users at the catchment scale. For example, in Europe: Local to global services based on products from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) have been developed for the hydropower, water resources, flood risk prevention and agriculture sectors within the H2020 CLARA project. The H2020 S2S4E project has co-developed a decision support…

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Climate services help improve decision-making for weather-dependent industries

Climate services help improve decision-making for weather-dependent industries

Contributed by Ilias Pechlivanidis, SMHI, & HEPEX co-chair.  Many industries are in need of reliable and usable climate forecasts for the coming weeks and months. Such predictions can help energy companies and other weather-dependent sectors better manage climate-related risks.  Renewable energy – such as wind, solar and hydropower –  is the fastest growing source of electricity globally. Renewable energy comes from natural sources such as sunlight, wind, or rain, which are not continuously generated. The generation of renewable energy is…

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Forecasting algal blooms in lakes and reservoirs

Forecasting algal blooms in lakes and reservoirs

Contributed by: Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Keith Beven, Ian Jones, J Alex Elliott, Stephen C Maberly, Eleanor B Mackay, Mitzi De Ville and Heidrun Feuchtmayr Why is it needed? Forecasting algal blooms is an increasingly high priority for water managers to aid in reactive decision-making and to avoid dangerous and expensive bloom impacts. Algal blooms are a global problem affecting water resources, recreation and ecosystems. Toxic algal species such as cyanobacteria (more commonly known as blue-green algae) can kill pets…

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