Browsed by
Category: forecast communication

Improving Hydro-Met services in developing countries

Improving Hydro-Met services in developing countries

Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Florian Pappenberger, ECMWF.  It is in the DNA of every HEPEX-er to believe that better hydrological forecasts contribute to human wellbeing and economic prosperity. We also know that the forecasts themselves are not enough and need to be accompanied by adequate warnings and receptive civil societies (amongst many other factors). A particularly important role in ensuring that a forecast has impact, falls to the National Hydro-Meteorological Services (NMHSs). A recent guide by the World Bank focuses on the…

Read More Read More

Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Is One Forecast Model Better Than Another?

Comments 0 Comment

Blog post contributed by: Tim DelSole* The Sign Test Is one forecast model better than another? A natural approach to answering this question is to run a set of forecasts with each model and then see which set has more skill. This comparison requires a statistical test to ensure that the estimated difference represents a real difference in skill, rather than a random sampling error. Unfortunately, there are three problems with using standard difference tests: they have low statistical power,…

Read More Read More

Risk Communication for Cyclone Early Warning – Do people get the message, and understand what it means for them?

Risk Communication for Cyclone Early Warning – Do people get the message, and understand what it means for them?

Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Bapon Fakhruddin, Senior DRR and Climate Resilience Specialist, Tonkin+Taylor & Co-chair of the Risk Interpretation and Application of IRDR/ICSU Every year, New Zealand is impacted by ex-tropical cyclones (ETCs) – typically, one ETC makes landfall per year, between the months of November and April. As tropical cyclones approach New Zealand, they begin to lose their strength and undergo extratropical transition (ETT). Some of these weather systems are as large as New Zealand’s North Island when considering the full diameter…

Read More Read More

Hydrological forecasting at EGU 2018 – what not to miss next week!

Hydrological forecasting at EGU 2018 – what not to miss next week!

Comments 0 Comment

The EGU 2018 Annual General Assembly will take place next week, from 8–13 April 2017 in Vienna as usual. The HEPEX community will be represented in many ways, and below you will find a quick guide to the most relevant sessions for hydrometeorological forecasters throughout the week. The sub-session on hydrological forecasting consists of 5 oral and poster sessions and 1 pico session. Get the EGU app now and tag the sessions! The very first day will kick off with…

Read More Read More

Bridging the gap between forecasters and operational hydrologists: an OzEWEX summer institute project

Bridging the gap between forecasters and operational hydrologists: an OzEWEX summer institute project

Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Melanie Loveridge, Bex Dunn and Yiling Liu How often do we assume that we understand the users’ needs, which may later be proven untrue? At the recent OzEWEX Australian Climate and Water Summer Institute – held in Canberra, Australia – we got the chance to bridge the gap between forecasters and operational hydrologists. Fifteen of us were invited to the OzEWEX summer institute, which provides early career researchers the chance to see the current and emerging data and…

Read More Read More