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Category: forecast communication

Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

Contributed by Le Liu , PhD As we know, ensemble approaches are widely adopted to estimate forecasts uncertainty. In atmospheric sciences, these approaches are specifically categorized into two types: multi-model ensembles and perturbed parameter ensembles. The former runs multiple numerical prediction models with the same initial parameters to estimate the atmospheric evolution, while the latter runs a single model multiple times with slightly perturbed initial conditions. They are usually combined to form the final forecast. Visualizing forecast uncertainty is challenging: the…

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“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

Contributed by Louise Arnal, Jess Neumann, Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke This blog post is based on a paper recently published in Geoscience Communication, written in collaboration with Liz Anspoks, Sue Manson, Tim Norton and Louise Wolfenden from the Environment Agency. With the aim to better anticipate future floods, UK policy is seeing an ongoing shift from flood defence towards a forecast-based flood risk management approach, under the Flood and Water Management Act 2010. It is in this context that…

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New water modelling to improve irrigation outlook accuracy

New water modelling to improve irrigation outlook accuracy

Contributed by Yating Tang1, Catherine Norwood2, Q J Wang1, Guy Ortlipp3, Mark Bailey3, and Kirsti Hakala1. Goulburn-Murray Water (GMW), Australia’s largest rural water corporation, has teamed up with researchers from the University of Melbourne to improve water forecasting in northern Victoria, to help irrigators with their business planning, cropping and water trading decisions. GMW is responsible for providing water availability information to local irrigators and other water users during the irrigation season each year. GMW provides two types of information…

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Can seasonal hydroclimate services be a success story for local applications? Some answers based on a French case study!

Can seasonal hydroclimate services be a success story for local applications? Some answers based on a French case study!

Contributed by Louise Crochemore (SMHI), Ilias Pechlivanidis (SMHI) and Maria-Helena Ramos (INRAE). Hydroclimate services are increasingly available… An increasing number of hydroclimate services provide readily available water predictions to users at the catchment scale. For example, in Europe: Local to global services based on products from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) have been developed for the hydropower, water resources, flood risk prevention and agriculture sectors within the H2020 CLARA project. The H2020 S2S4E project has co-developed a decision support…

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Climate services help improve decision-making for weather-dependent industries

Climate services help improve decision-making for weather-dependent industries

Contributed by Ilias Pechlivanidis, SMHI, & HEPEX co-chair.  Many industries are in need of reliable and usable climate forecasts for the coming weeks and months. Such predictions can help energy companies and other weather-dependent sectors better manage climate-related risks.  Renewable energy – such as wind, solar and hydropower –  is the fastest growing source of electricity globally. Renewable energy comes from natural sources such as sunlight, wind, or rain, which are not continuously generated. The generation of renewable energy is…

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