forecast communication

ZOOMing into the Age of Digital Collaborations

January 19, 2023 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Bart van Osnabrugge, Antara Dasgupta, Louise Arnal, Rebecca Emerton and Shaun Harrigan Are physical meetings strictly necessary to foster effective collaborations? The Context Hearing the laments about online conferences, limited interactions and zoom fatigue, it seems easy to go with the answer “yes they are”. Yes, meeting in person is fun and makes connecting a lot easier. There is no rivalling going out for dinner or partying after a full day of presentations. However, the virtual world also offers…

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How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

February 17, 2022 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Zeqing Huang and Tongtiegang Zhao This blog aims to contribute to the large scientific discussion on the performance assessment of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts. We are particularly driven by the valuable global precipitation and temperature forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs) (Pappenberger and Buizza, 2009; Kirtman et al., 2014; Bauer et al., 2015; Becker et al., 2020; Crochemore et al., 2021). Their forecasts have been widely used in hydrological modeling and water resources management, including flood warning (Alfieri…

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“Hydrological Constellations”: a science & art piece

July 21, 2021 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Louise Arnal (artist & scientist; postdoctoral fellow at the University of Saskatchewan) From 29 June to 1 July 2021, the joint workshop “Connecting global to local hydrological modelling and forecasting: scientific advances and challenges”, co-organized by ECMWF – CEMS – C3S – HEPEX – GFP, was held virtually. As a scientist and artist, I wanted to participate and reflect on the topics explored during the workshop with both my scientist and artist hats on. With the support of…

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Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

November 18, 2020 Marie-Amélie Boucher Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Le Liu, PhD., School of Computer Science Northwestern Polytechnical University. As we know, ensemble approaches are widely adopted to estimate forecasts uncertainty. In atmospheric sciences, these approaches are specifically categorized into two types: multi-model ensembles and perturbed parameter ensembles. The former runs multiple numerical prediction models with the same initial parameters to estimate the atmospheric evolution, while the latter runs a single model multiple times with slightly perturbed initial conditions. They are usually combined to form the final forecast….

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“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

September 16, 2020 Rebecca Emerton Comments 2 comments

Contributed by Louise Arnal, Jess Neumann, Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke This blog post is based on a paper recently published in Geoscience Communication, written in collaboration with Liz Anspoks, Sue Manson, Tim Norton and Louise Wolfenden from the Environment Agency. With the aim to better anticipate future floods, UK policy is seeing an ongoing shift from flood defence towards a forecast-based flood risk management approach, under the Flood and Water Management Act 2010. It is in this context that…

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