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Category: floods

“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

Contributed by Louise Arnal, Jess Neumann, Liz Stephens and Hannah Cloke. This blog post is based on a paper recently published in Geoscience Communication, written in collaboration with Liz Anspoks, Sue Manson, Tim Norton and Louise Wolfenden from the Environment Agency. With the aim to better anticipate future floods, UK policy is seeing an ongoing shift from flood defence towards a forecast-based flood risk management approach, under the Flood and Water Management Act 2010. It is in this context that…

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A Month of Storms: Ciara, Dennis and Atmospheric Rivers

A Month of Storms: Ciara, Dennis and Atmospheric Rivers

Contributed by Helen Griffith, Dept of Geography & Environmental Science, University of Reading, UK. February 2020 has been announced as the wettest February on record for most of the UK[1]. The arrival of Storms Ciara and Dennis led to widespread flooding and the recovery is expected to cost the insurance industry over £225m[2]. Saturated soils combined with additional rainfall mean that, at the time of writing, over 100 flood warnings are still in place across England and Wales and the…

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Helping shape a new flood forecasting service in The wellington region, new zealand

Helping shape a new flood forecasting service in The wellington region, new zealand

Contributed by Michael Cranston (RAB), Andy Brown (Greater Wellington Regional Council) and Bapon Fakhruddin (Tonkin and Taylor). The flooding challenge in Wellington Greater Wellington Regional Council (GWRC) are embarking on a programme to establish improved flood forecasting services across the Wellington Region on New Zealand’s north island. Flooding is considered New Zealand’s number one natural hazard with flood emergencies estimated to have cost $17 million a year in insurance payments and $15 million in emergency management expenditure between 1968 and…

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OpenIFS@home: Using citizen science to improve our understanding of weather and hydrological forecasts

OpenIFS@home: Using citizen science to improve our understanding of weather and hydrological forecasts

The history of HEPEX is deeply connected to ensemble forecasting and uncertainty analysis. Indeed, none of us could even imagine a forecast without uncertainties (apart from McFool). One direction of research is to investigate the value in improving forecasts using a coupled system and truly understand the interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface whilst analysing the associated uncertainties. However, any analysis is limited by the resources one has available. To run a large number of ensembles, one would…

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Integration of Early Warning Systems and Young Professionals

Integration of Early Warning Systems and Young Professionals

Contributed by Nilay Dogulu, Lydia Cumiskey and Erika Roxana Meléndez Landaverde Early warning systems (EWSs) help society to prepare for, and respond to, all types of disasters, including those related to hydrometeorological hazards. The recent floods in Mozambique has clearly showed that EWSs are inevitable part of disaster risk management as they can save lives and minimize potential economic and environmental damages. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 specifically emphasizes the need to “substantially increase the availability of…

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