ensemble techniques

ZOOMing into the Age of Digital Collaborations

January 19, 2023 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Bart van Osnabrugge, Antara Dasgupta, Louise Arnal, Rebecca Emerton and Shaun Harrigan Are physical meetings strictly necessary to foster effective collaborations? The Context Hearing the laments about online conferences, limited interactions and zoom fatigue, it seems easy to go with the answer “yes they are”. Yes, meeting in person is fun and makes connecting a lot easier. There is no rivalling going out for dinner or partying after a full day of presentations. However, the virtual world also offers…

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If you had to build a probabilistic streamflow forecasting chain from scratch, what components would you pick up?

March 23, 2022 Marie-Amélie Boucher Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Joseph Bellier Take a meteorological ensemble, use it as input of a hydrological model, but then what? There are many ways to improve a forecasting chain, but which upgrade is going to be the most beneficial? We recently published a paper in which we “play” with a modular forecasting chain, by adding/removing various components and verifying how skillful the streamflow forecasts are. Here are some outputs. The ensemble approach, in its wider definition (not only meteorological ensemble forecasting),…

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How can we verify the predictive performance of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts?

February 17, 2022 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Zeqing Huang and Tongtiegang Zhao This blog aims to contribute to the large scientific discussion on the performance assessment of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts. We are particularly driven by the valuable global precipitation and temperature forecasts generated by global climate models (GCMs) (Pappenberger and Buizza, 2009; Kirtman et al., 2014; Bauer et al., 2015; Becker et al., 2020; Crochemore et al., 2021). Their forecasts have been widely used in hydrological modeling and water resources management, including flood warning (Alfieri…

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What is the value of seasonal forecasts for water resources management?

February 19, 2021 Ilias Pechlivanidis Comments 0 Comment

Contributed by Andres Peñuela, Christopher Hutton and Francesca Pianosi Improved skill of predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and Northern Europe have motivated an increasing effort to improve seasonal weather forecasting systems. Seasonal weather forecasts are expected to be useful for a range of purposes, including to improve the management of water resource systems. To contribute to the assessment of seasonal forecasts value for water managers, we ran a simulation exercise investigating how they could integrate seasonal forecast products in…

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Playing ‘frisbee’ with seasonal predictions

January 6, 2021 Rebecca Emerton Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images This blog is written by Timo Kelder (@timokelder), a 3rd year PhD student in climate science at Loughborough University. Here, he writes about the history of frisbees, and the parallels with his recently published paper on using seasonal predictions for detecting recent trends in rare extremes. Ultimate frisbee is now a well-established sport, with over 70,000 British participants in 2019. The photo shows how this began in the 1970s by skimming disks. But how…

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