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Category: economic value

Hydrological Ensemble forecasting – financial investment vs return

Hydrological Ensemble forecasting – financial investment vs return

by Hannah Cloke, Fredrik Wetterhall and Florian Pappenberger Within the HEPEX community we all understand very well that hydrological (ensemble) forecasting is hard work. Massive effort goes into developing the systems, huge resources go into running them and there is much sweat over making decisions. Entire PhDs, or indeed careers, are spent on getting a system to work or to be used effectively. In most cases there are still mountains to climb before we reach our current goals. To motivate…

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From ‘flood defence’ to ‘flood risk management’ …. What mixes of disciplines creatively co-working might contribute new insights to this ‘wicked problem’ and community resilience building?

From ‘flood defence’ to ‘flood risk management’ …. What mixes of disciplines creatively co-working might contribute new insights to this ‘wicked problem’ and community resilience building?

By Lindsey McEwen (University of the West of England, Bristol) The floods of winter 2013-14 brought the tensions and schisms in UK flood management into strong focus. They also highlighted how flooding is associated with many discourses in the interactions among scientists, the public, politicians and the media – including those of victimhood and blame so vehemently propagated in the TV coverage. So what are the implications of this paradigm shift (of the mid 1990s) to ‘management of flood risk’…

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Benefit achieved in the 2014 flood in Bangladesh

Benefit achieved in the 2014 flood in Bangladesh

Contributed by S.H.M. Fakhruddin It has long been recognized that if society could have information on floods in advance, the adverse effects associated with them could be minimized. Prevalence of traditional forecast practices in various parts of the world reflects the demand for long-range forecasts to manage uncertainties associated with climate variability. Recent advancements in long-lead flood prediction promise huge benefits to countries like Bangladesh. The case of Bangladesh Floods during the summer monsoon are a recurring event in Bangladesh…

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Is a lack of competition affecting innovation in operational river forecasting?

Is a lack of competition affecting innovation in operational river forecasting?

Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. I (with my co-authors) recently submitted a paper on the “Challenges of Operational River Forecasting”, which discussed institutional conservatism as a result of perceived liability associated with public forecasts. The paper postulated that if forecasters are concerned about liability, they will favor standard operating procedures over innovative – but…

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On the economic value of hydrological ensemble forecasts

On the economic value of hydrological ensemble forecasts

Contributed by Marie-Amélie Boucher, Maria-Helena Ramos and Ioanna Zalachori It is often assumed that probabilistic forecasts should lead to better water and risk management through increased benefits (economic or not) to users in their decision-making processes. Most often, this assumption arises from studies based on evaluations of forecast quality, which propose comparisons of performance between deterministic and probabilistic (or, for example, ensemble) forecasts using metrics such as the CRPS and the MAE to support their conclusions. But, really, does quality…

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