Contributed by James Bennett, Nick Loveday and Rob Taggart Guns n’ Roses were in town, and so was HEPEX. For many of us AMOS2022 was the first in-person conference we’d attended since the advent of the pandemic. This alone made it an amazing event – it was wonderful to see old and new faces and feed off the energy of others’ work. Like Slash returning to complete the original lineup, it felt like sinking into your favourite chair. AMOS is…
Contributed by Andres Peñuela, Christopher Hutton and Francesca Pianosi Improved skill of predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and Northern Europe have motivated an increasing effort to improve seasonal weather forecasting systems. Seasonal weather forecasts are expected to be useful for a range of purposes, including to improve the management of water resource systems. To contribute to the assessment of seasonal forecasts value for water managers, we ran a simulation exercise investigating how they could integrate seasonal forecast products in…
Contributed by Jude Musuuza (SMHI). The increased focus on satellite missions in recent years has resulted in a rich source of valuable Earth Observations (EO), in terms of spatial coverage and temporal frequencies that are impossible to achieve with direct measurements. Such observations have been used in various disciplines, including also hydrological modelling, for instance to improve process understanding through tailored model parameterisation and performance assessment. In addition EOs have been used to (better) initialise the model states which further…
Contributed by Florian Pappenberger, ECMWF. It is in the DNA of every HEPEX-er to believe that better hydrological forecasts contribute to human wellbeing and economic prosperity. We also know that the forecasts themselves are not enough and need to be accompanied by adequate warnings and receptive civil societies (amongst many other factors). A particularly important role in ensuring that a forecast has impact, falls to the National Hydro-Meteorological Services (NMHSs). A recent guide by the World Bank focuses on the…
by Marie-Amélie Boucher and Vincent Boucher Assessing the value of forecasts is a very popular topic among the HEPEX community. The assessment of forecast value is highly dependent on the purpose served by the forecasts. For the specific problem of decision-making related to flood mitigation, Murphy (1976, 1977) proposed the use of the cost-loss ratio framework. The vast majority of papers related to the assessment of forecast value for flood mitigation adopt this framework, so one could think that everything is…