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Category: case-studies

Flood forecasting systems around the world – Interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano

Flood forecasting systems around the world – Interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano

As the 1st Edition of the book “Flood Forecasting, A Global Perspective” has just been released, Thomas Adams (UCAR) and Tom Pagano (BoM) [see their bio below], editors, recall how the idea of the book was born and what they have learned when editing contributions describing national and regional flood forecasting systems from 11 different countries, as well as continental scale systems. This reference book points out challenges and ways forward to improve flood forecasting around the world. Maria-Helena Ramos…

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Ensemble forecasting experiments in a medium size tropical basin using MASTER rainfall forecasts

Ensemble forecasting experiments in a medium size tropical basin using MASTER rainfall forecasts

Contributed by Adalberto Meller and Fernando Fan, members of the LSH Research Group Guest Columnist Team As we have seem in our first post, great advances occurred in Brazil in the last years concerning the development of flood alert systems, but still today there is a low number of operational systems in terms of territory coverage, especially those using a probabilistic approach. One of the first researches in Brazil to evaluate ensemble flood forecasts in South America was presented by…

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A never-ending struggle – Improving spring melt runoff forecast via snow information

A never-ending struggle – Improving spring melt runoff forecast via snow information

Contributed by David Gustafsson (SMHI), member of the SMHI Guest Columnist Team As long as we can remember, the Swedish hydropower hydrologists have tried to improve the spring melt runoff predictions by integrating snow measurements in their forecast models. Various measurements techniques have been used: traditional snow surveys with snow tube sampling; snowmobile and helicopter borne ground-penetrating radar and gamma-ray sensors; laser-scanning; and of course numerous attempts with satellite data (Photo 1). The usual conclusions have been, “yes we can…

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El Niño leads to collaboration for developing ensemble flood forecasting in Peru

El Niño leads to collaboration for developing ensemble flood forecasting in Peru

Contributed by Liz Stephens, Beatriz Revilla-Romero and Juan Bazo The Forecast-based Financing (FbF) project for Peru was initially set-up to assist communities vulnerable to flooding on the River Amazon in Iquitos, and to cold-waves in Puno. However, the emergence of the strong El Nino event has focused attention on the northern regions of Piura and Lambayeque. The extraordinary El Niño events of 82/83 and 97/98 caused devastating flooding in these regions, and so naturally fears were raised of flooding during the…

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Should the forecaster modify an ensemble hydrological forecast? A case study.

Should the forecaster modify an ensemble hydrological forecast? A case study.

Andrea is an operational forecaster at the US National Weather Service’s North Central River Forecast Centre. She writes about some very specific forecasting challenges that she and her colleagues are faced with on a daily basis. Introduction Devils Lake water levels have risen over 10 meters in the past 22 years. Due to natural variability in winter precipitation, the water level may further rise in spring as a result of melting of the snowpack in the lake’s basin. Such a…

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