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Author: Fredrik Wetterhall

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Ensemble prediction: past, present and future

Contributed by Fredrik Wetterhall and Roberto Buizza, ECMWF The work of producing meteorological ensemble forecasts started 25 years ago at ECMWF and NCEP, and it sparked a revolution in both weather forecasts and its many applications. To celebrate this occasion, more than 100 people from across the world joined the 28 speakers at ECMWF’s Annual Seminar 11-14 September held in Reading, UK. The theme was “Ensemble prediction: past, present and future” and the four days where filled with presentations and…

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Final call for abstracts: 2018 HEPEX workshop in Melbourne, Australia

Final call for abstracts: 2018 HEPEX workshop in Melbourne, Australia

As you may have heard, the 2018 HEPEX workshop in Melbourne is coming up soon (Feb 6-8, 2018). Abstracts are due for submission on Sep 30, 2017. The workshop will feature both oral and poster presentations. The theme for the workshop is ‘breaking the barriers’ to highlight current challenges facing ensemble forecasting researchers and practitioners and how they can (and have!) been overcome. We wish to highlight the following barriers: using ensemble forecasts to improve decisions in practice extending forecasts…

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The Current State of Operational Global (and continental) Scale Flood Forecasting

The Current State of Operational Global (and continental) Scale Flood Forecasting

contributed by Rebecca Emerton, PhD Student at the University of Reading and ECMWF After reading Chantal’s recent blog post discussing some of the limitations for international flood forecasting, and last week’s interview with Thomas Adams and Tom Pagano discussing their new book describing national and regional flood forecasting systems around the world, I thought it would be interesting to add to this dialogue with a brief overview of the current state of large-scale (global and continental) operational flood forecasting. It…

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“Ex tempore”- El Niño Ready Nations (ENRN)

“Ex tempore”- El Niño Ready Nations (ENRN)

Contributed by Bapon Fakhruddin Seasonal forecasting techniques today are far more advanced than they were 40 years ago, enabling ensembles of seasonal forecast simulations with state-of-the-art climate models that produce a probability distribution of possible outcomes at various lead times for slightly different initial conditions. This is thanks to the development of complex coupled ocean–atmosphere–land numerical models, modern statistical forecasting tools, sophisticated data assimilation systems and global observing systems that provide real-time data for forecast initialization. The forecast ensembles nowadays…

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UK and Ireland floods in December 2015 and January 2016

UK and Ireland floods in December 2015 and January 2016

by Richard Davies floodlist.com December 2015 saw three storms – Desmond, Eva and Frank – conspire to make it the UK’s wettest month on record. The heavy rainfall brought severe flooding to parts of Scotland, Ireland and northern England, where Honister Pass in Cumbria saw a record-breaking 341mm of rain in 24 hours (to 18:00 GMT, 05 December 2015). More than 20,000 properties were flooded as a result of the extreme weather. UK insurers estimate they will need to pay…

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