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Author: Tom Pagano

For discussion: Are we getting close to integrating water and climate information?

For discussion: Are we getting close to integrating water and climate information?

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Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. Following on a post earlier this week about the upcoming Australian GEWEX meeting, another session will be on the topic of “Are we getting close to integrating water and climate information?” What do you think about this issue? Put your ideas in the comments below. Similar to the other post’s…

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For discussion: Have we reached the limits of what can be forecast in water, weather and climate?

For discussion: Have we reached the limits of what can be forecast in water, weather and climate?

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Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. This post invites a discussion around the topic “Have we reached the limits of what can be forecast in water, weather and climate?” On 28-29 October, Australian researchers in an offshoot of the Global and regional Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project will meet in Canberra to examine the…

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Interview with Beth Ebert: What is good forecast verification?

Interview with Beth Ebert: What is good forecast verification?

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Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and Dr. Ebert’s and do not express the views or opinions of their employer or the Australian Government. HEPEX is spurring interest in Hydrologic Forecasting Science as its own field of study, with forecast verification (assessment of the quality of forecasts) a related and essential topic. Forecast verification is also of interest to operational services – the Director of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology…

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Challenges of Operational River Forecasting

Challenges of Operational River Forecasting

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Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. I, with ten international colleagues, recently published a paper in the Journal of Hydrometeorology titled “Challenges of Operational River Forecasting” (email me for a copy). Drawing on experiences from dozens of countries, we outlined some of the issues facing forecasters today. This blog post lists some of the main…

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Is a lack of competition affecting innovation in operational river forecasting?

Is a lack of competition affecting innovation in operational river forecasting?

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Contributed by Tom Pagano, a HEPEX guest columnist for 2014 The opinions expressed here are solely the author’s and do not express the views or opinions of his employer or the Australian Government. I (with my co-authors) recently submitted a paper on the “Challenges of Operational River Forecasting”, which discussed institutional conservatism as a result of perceived liability associated with public forecasts. The paper postulated that if forecasters are concerned about liability, they will favor standard operating procedures over innovative – but…

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