Browsed by
Author: Marie-Amélie Boucher

Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

Representative Direct Ensemble Uncertainty Visualizations: Conveying Uncertainty Using A Small Portion of The Data

Contributed by Le Liu, PhD., School of Computer Science Northwestern Polytechnical University.   As we know, ensemble approaches are widely adopted to estimate forecasts uncertainty. In atmospheric sciences, these approaches are specifically categorized into two types: multi-model ensembles and perturbed parameter ensembles. The former runs multiple numerical prediction models with the same initial parameters to estimate the atmospheric evolution, while the latter runs a single model multiple times with slightly perturbed initial conditions. They are usually combined to form the final forecast….

Read More Read More

Where did the scientific method go?

Where did the scientific method go?

… And can we please bring it back? Contributed by Marie-Amélie Boucher (Université de Sherbrooke, Canada)  I like the scientific method. I like it because it makes us focus on the acquisition of new knowledge following a rigorous path and does not devalue results that go against initial expectations. However, it seems to me that in hydrology, like in many applied sciences we focus mostly on reaching research objectives, or goals. Objective-centered research: what is the problem with research objectives?…

Read More Read More

IAHS conference: live feed

IAHS conference: live feed

Contributed by Marie-Amélie Boucher (Université de Sherbrooke) and Maria-Helena Ramos (Irstea) Cannot attend IAHS conference in Montreal this week? Follow us then! During this week, from Monday 8 to Saturday 13, we will be posting some lines and photos every day in the HEPEX blog, directly from the 27th IUGG General Assembly, at the Palais des Congrès in Montréal, Canada. You can post comments day by day too, and we will try to answer them all. Just remember: we will…

Read More Read More

“One thing you need to know about seasonal forecasts”

“One thing you need to know about seasonal forecasts”

Contributed by Rachel Bazile, Marie-Amélie Boucher and Chris White. “It is that they have no skill…” This is how Matt Newman from NOAA’s ESRL referred to seasonal forecasts in his opening presentation at the Second International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) / Seasonal to Decadal (S2D) Prediction. Organized by NCAR, the meeting which was held from Sept. 17 to 21 in Boulder, Colorado, had gathered more than 300 international scientists from both the S2S and S2D prediction communities… but…

Read More Read More

Risk aversion and decision making using ensemble forecasts

Risk aversion and decision making using ensemble forecasts

by Marie-Amélie Boucher and Vincent Boucher Assessing the value of forecasts is a very popular topic among the HEPEX community. The assessment of forecast value is highly dependent on the purpose served by the forecasts. For the specific problem of decision-making related to flood mitigation, Murphy (1976, 1977) proposed the use of the cost-loss ratio framework. The vast majority of papers related to the assessment of forecast value for flood mitigation adopt this framework, so one could think that everything is…

Read More Read More