Time: Thursday, June 27, 2013 10:30 am GMT Summer Time (London, GMT+01:00)
Speaker: David Lavers, University of Iowa
Abstract: Damage from flooding in the winter and autumn seasons has been widespread in the United Kingdom and Western Europe over recent decades. In this seminar the connection between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and the largest winter floods in a range of British basins will be discussed from a hydrological and atmospheric stand-point. Firstly, an analysis of the hydrological time series is used to evaluate atmospheric fields before the largest floods to show the AR-flood link. Secondly, an algorithm is introduced that screens for ARs in climate model output; this is followed by showing the strong connection between the identified ARs and British winter floods. Future changes to ARs under climate change will also be considered.